The Spring 2023 edition of the Journal of Business Forecasting features an article co-authored by First Analytics and The Hershey Company. It shows compelling accuracy results by focusing on some novel hierarchical forecasting methods. From the abstract: Forecasting is traditionally…
First Analytics will be co-presenting with Land-O-Lakes at the upcoming Institute of Business Forecasting Predictive Analytics and Forecasting conference. The event will be held in New Orleans, April 25th through 27th, 2023. We will discuss a model that has its…
The title of this post is a quote credited to Winston Churchill, although the attribution is questionable. It conveys the notion that dramatic events generate new insights and create opportunities for growth. Put another way, "look for the silver lining."…
First Analytics recently joined the Gurobi Alliance as a service partner. Gurobi produces the world’s fastest and most powerful mathematical optimization solver – the Gurobi Optimizer – which is used by leading global companies across more than 40 different industries…
A friend of First Analytics, aware of our safety work in the railroad industry, asked, "so what do you think of all the train derailments?" He had seen reports of three derailments just within the last few days. With the…
We have previously discussed interesting phenomenon in analytics which, if not carefully considered or understood, can lead to unexpected or incorrect conclusions. See, for example, Simpson's Paradox and Goodhart's law. And then there is "data-dredging" of which so-called P-hacking is…
Tom Davenport, First Analytics chairman and noted author and expert on analytics just released his latest book in late January, All-in On AI: How Smart Companies Win Big with Artificial Intelligence. Filled with insights, strategies, and best practices, All-In on…
We have previously written about the perils of third-party data in forecasting. The notion that more data helps improve forecasting is true in principle, albeit in practice it can make things worse. An article published in the fourth quarter 2022…
As of Monday, November 21st, 2022, the prospects of averting a nationwide rail strike appear to be grim. The Federal government intervened in September, avoiding a strike at that time. But there was a sense that this was just "kicking…
You won't want to miss a compelling demonstration of a predictive safety application, to be presented at the upcoming Utility Analytics Week in San Diego on October 19th. SoCalGas will present a coaching tool, based on machine learning, to support…