Forecasting
The Spring 2023 edition of the Journal of Business Forecasting features an article co-authored by First Analytics and The Hershey Company. It shows compelling accuracy results by focusing on some novel hierarchical forecasting methods. From the abstract: Forecasting is traditionally…
First Analytics will be co-presenting with Land-O-Lakes at the upcoming Institute of Business Forecasting Predictive Analytics and Forecasting conference. The event will be held in New Orleans, April 25th through 27th, 2023. We will discuss a model that has its…
We have previously written about the perils of third-party data in forecasting. The notion that more data helps improve forecasting is true in principle, albeit in practice it can make things worse. An article published in the fourth quarter 2022…
Many have touted the inclusion of data from outside the firm as a way to improve forecast accuracy. The idea is that, with the incorporation of more information to explain the demand signal, forecasts are bound to be better. In…
After many months of angst about rapidly rising commodity prices, indications are that they are coming back down. This presents an opportunity for a data-driven business that uses advanced analytics. Though there is pain in operating a supply chain under…
As a heavy industry, railroads seek to appeal to the finance community by focusing on metrics that speak to the company’s efficient utilization of its assets. A key metric is Operating Ratio, which is defined as operating expenses as a…
Rob Stevens with First Analytics will be speaking at the upcoming Foresight Practitioner Conference November 13th at 9:30 AM in Chapel Hill, NC. This conference will primarily focus on Artificial Intelligence and what this means for forecasting and planning. Rob…
We are excited to present some work we have been doing with the Kellogg Company to bring machine learning into the demand planning process. If you can make your way to SAS Analytics Experience in San Diego September 17-19th, we'd…
The sharing of techniques and methodologies across industries can produce advances in successful applications, not only for the practice of analytics as a whole, but for individual firms. Practitioners in the areas of marketing and supply chain analytics, for example,…
Companies use forecasting methods to plan for future demand using time series data. Often, these time series can be represented in a hierarchy. For example, products can be broken down to different levels of sales data. Figure 1 shows an…